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Prediction Markets

A staged path from the basic idea to pricing, settlement, fees and risk.

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What Are Prediction Markets? Definition, examples and boundaries How Prediction Markets Work Contracts, prices and settlement Probability Pricing Read prices as changing estimates Market Resolution Rules, sources and edge cases Fees, Liquidity & Risk Costs, spread and position risk Prediction Market Analysis Evidence-led research methods
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Event Trading

Connect real-world catalysts to market questions, evidence and probability moves.

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What Is Event Trading? A concise definition and examples Event Trading Strategies Structured research patterns Reading Probability Movements Interpret repricing without overclaiming Breaking Events and Markets Live-event examples and limitations Event Market Reaction Database Verified data, charts and downloads Risk Management Position sizing and no-entry rules
Neutral comparison first

Platforms

Start with source-backed comparison, then move to availability, reviews and platform-specific rules.

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Polymarket Review Funding, resolution and risks Kalshi Review Fees, access and market rules PredictIt Guide Political markets, fees and limits Availability Tracker Official access notes and caveats Platform Finder Match platforms to visitor intent Prediction Market Scanner Search current market data
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Guides

Rules, costs, resolution and liquidity guides grouped by the decision they support.

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How to Read Market Rules Check conditions before entering Prediction Market Fees Compare cost paths and caveats Kalshi Fees Explained Formula and worked examples PredictIt Fees and Limits Withdrawal friction and constraints Polymarket Resolution Disputes Proposals, challenges and UMA Liquidity and Spread Depth, slippage and entry checks
Calculate and verify

Tools & Data

Put mechanics into practice, compare access, scan markets and download research data.

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YES/NO Contract Calculator Cost, payout, loss and fees Beginner Risk Simulator Model sequence and drawdown risk Platform Availability Tracker Access notes from official sources Prediction Market Scanner Grouped current market discovery Reaction Database Verified cases and research exports Platform Comparison Database Source-backed platform facts
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News & Updates

Dated platform, fee, resolution-source and regulatory changes checked against primary sources.

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Event contract tool

YES/NO Contract Calculator

Estimate contract cost, implied probability, payout, and break-even price for a simple $1 YES/NO event contract.

  • No external APIs
  • Educational math only
  • No platform-specific fee claims

Inputs

Live calculator
Contract side
$0.54

Manual account-size reference. It does not change by itself.

Results

YES side
Implied probability 54.0% For the selected side at the entered price.
Profit if correct $4.60 After optional fees.
Cost to enter$5.40
Payout if correct$10.00
Loss if incorrect$5.40
Fees included$0.00
Break-even price$0.54
Position size (% of bankroll)2.2%
This calculator assumes a simple event contract that costs the entered price and pays $1.00 if the selected side is correct. It is not financial advice and does not model every exchange fee, spread, tax, or liquidity condition.
  • cost = price * contracts
  • payout = $1.00 * contracts
  • profit = payout - cost - fees
  • loss = cost + fees

Quick guide

How to use this calculator

Use this as a mechanical worksheet for one simple YES/NO contract example. It shows the cost, possible payout, profit, loss, and optional fee effect; it does not tell you whether a market is worth trading. Use the probability-pricing guide to interpret what the entered market price means.

  1. Choose YES or NO and enter the contract price.
  2. Set the number of contracts. One contract is modeled as costing the entered price and paying $1.00 if the selected side is correct.
  3. Add a fee model or bankroll reference when useful, then read the result cards and calculation table.
Example: the default example uses YES at $0.54 for 10 contracts. That is $5.40 cost, a $10.00 payout if YES is correct, $4.60 profit before any additional platform costs, and a $5.40 loss if the outcome is incorrect.

Calculator FAQ

Does the price equal the true probability?

No. The calculator shows the simple implied-probability relationship between a contract price and a $1.00 payout. Market price can differ from your own estimate, and fees, spread, liquidity, and resolution rules still matter.

What does the NO button change?

It changes the selected side used for the labels and example. The same payout model applies: the selected side pays $1.00 if it is correct.

What does this calculator leave out?

It does not model every platform’s fee schedule, spread, taxes, settlement process, or liquidity. For broader context, see how prediction markets work, prediction market fees, and prediction market risk management.

Tool reference

Use this before placing a trade

This calculator is a shareable mechanical reference for checking contract cost, payout, maximum loss, fee effect, and bankroll usage before you compare a market with your own view. It is a worksheet, not a trade signal or a promise of results.

  • Allowed price: $0.01–$0.99 per contract.
  • Allowed quantity: 1–100,000 contracts.
  • Fee handling: no fee, flat fee, per-contract fee, or percentage of cost.
  • Input recovery: out-of-range values are constrained by the field limits; use Reset example to restore the starting case.
Next check: confirm the market’s resolution rule, review risk management, and use the liquidity and spread guide to understand why a calculated result may differ from an executable fill.

Visual proof

Visual Proof: Calculator Example

This image was captured for SEO plan item 4.5 to make the review/tool evidence more concrete without exposing private account data.

Captured on 2026-07-04 from the live EventTradingHub calculator. The crop shows the practical input/result surface for a simple YES/NO contract example and does not use external platform APIs.

Beginner mistakes

Beginner Mistakes to Avoid

The calculator is a worksheet, not a signal. These mistakes are the most common ways a clean payout example becomes misleading.

Entering the displayed price as the final payout The price is the entry cost per contract; final payout depends on the outcome and contract quantity.
Ignoring maximum loss A small contract price can still become a full loss if the outcome settles against the position.
Leaving fees and costs out Use the calculator result as a gross framework unless the platform-specific cost path is separately checked.
Using the calculator as a recommendation A positive-looking payout example does not say the market is worth trading.
  • Run the same example with a losing outcome before focusing on upside.
  • If you cannot explain the resolution rule, the payout math is incomplete.

Risk notice

Prediction markets involve risk

Prediction markets and event contracts involve financial risk. You can lose money, including the full amount committed to a contract.

Event Trading Hub is for education and research only. This is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. You are responsible for your own decisions and for checking platform rules, fees, availability, and local regulations before trading.

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