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Prediction Markets

A staged path from the basic idea to pricing, settlement, fees and risk.

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What Are Prediction Markets? Definition, examples and boundaries How Prediction Markets Work Contracts, prices and settlement Probability Pricing Read prices as changing estimates Market Resolution Rules, sources and edge cases Fees, Liquidity & Risk Costs, spread and position risk Prediction Market Analysis Evidence-led research methods
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Event Trading

Connect real-world catalysts to market questions, evidence and probability moves.

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What Is Event Trading? A concise definition and examples Event Trading Strategies Structured research patterns Reading Probability Movements Interpret repricing without overclaiming Breaking Events and Markets Live-event examples and limitations Event Market Reaction Database Verified data, charts and downloads Risk Management Position sizing and no-entry rules
Neutral comparison first

Platforms

Start with source-backed comparison, then move to availability, reviews and platform-specific rules.

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Polymarket Review Funding, resolution and risks Kalshi Review Fees, access and market rules PredictIt Guide Political markets, fees and limits Availability Tracker Official access notes and caveats Platform Finder Match platforms to visitor intent Prediction Market Scanner Search current market data
Practical library

Guides

Rules, costs, resolution and liquidity guides grouped by the decision they support.

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How to Read Market Rules Check conditions before entering Prediction Market Fees Compare cost paths and caveats Kalshi Fees Explained Formula and worked examples PredictIt Fees and Limits Withdrawal friction and constraints Polymarket Resolution Disputes Proposals, challenges and UMA Liquidity and Spread Depth, slippage and entry checks
Calculate and verify

Tools & Data

Put mechanics into practice, compare access, scan markets and download research data.

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YES/NO Contract Calculator Cost, payout, loss and fees Beginner Risk Simulator Model sequence and drawdown risk Platform Availability Tracker Access notes from official sources Prediction Market Scanner Grouped current market discovery Reaction Database Verified cases and research exports Platform Comparison Database Source-backed platform facts
Verified changes

News & Updates

Dated platform, fee, resolution-source and regulatory changes checked against primary sources.

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Kalshi Weather Data Resolution-source update Polymarket Sports Fees Taker fee and maker rebate update CFTC Incentive Advisory Regulatory filing guidance Platform Database Compare source-backed platform facts Availability Tracker Check access notes and caveats Fact-Checking Policy How changing claims are verified

Beginner Risk Simulator

Test how bankroll size, position risk, trade count and win/loss sequences can affect drawdown in a simple prediction-market learning model.

Event contract tool

Stress-test a simple bankroll plan before you think about real event contracts. Change the bankroll, risk size, trade count, and win/loss path to see how drawdown can happen even when the math looks reasonable.

  • No external APIs
  • Educational sizing model
  • No profit forecast
  • Last updated July 23, 2026

Scenario inputs

Live simulator
$500

The model treats this as the amount reserved for learning, not money you can afford to lose.

3%

Each loss subtracts this percentage of the current bankroll.

20

More attempts give more chances for a losing streak to appear.

0.8R

A 0.8R win adds 80% of the amount risked on that trade.

Use the stress tests to see how timing changes the equity curve.

Optional. Enter W and L characters. The simulator repeats the sequence until it reaches the selected trade count.

Projected path

20 trades
Final bankroll $0 After the selected sequence.
Net change $0 Versus starting bankroll.
Max drawdown 0% Largest drop from a prior equity peak.
Worst streak 0 losses Consecutive losses in this path.
Bankroll path and drawdown visualization Line chart showing the simulated bankroll after each trade and drawdown bars below prior peaks.
MeasureValueWhy it matters
This model shows position sizing risk, not prediction skill. It ignores fees, liquidity, slippage, platform rules, taxes, and settlement timing.

How to read the simulator

A beginner risk plan should survive ordinary mistakes and losing streaks. The useful question is not only whether the final number is positive. It is whether the path would be psychologically and financially tolerable while the trades are unfolding.

  • Risk per trade is the amount the model subtracts on a loss.
  • Average winning trade is measured in risk units, so 1R means a winning trade adds the same amount that was at risk.
  • Max drawdown shows the largest percentage drop from the highest prior bankroll level.
Tools hub YES/NO calculator Risk management guide Market rules guide Fee comparison guide Disclaimer

Risk simulator FAQ

Does this predict real trading results?

No. It is a simplified learning model. Real event contracts can include spread, fees, changing liquidity, platform rules, settlement delays, and full loss of a position.

Why does a small risk percentage still matter?

Small losses compound when they arrive in a cluster. The same win rate can feel very different depending on whether the losses arrive early, late, or evenly spaced.

What should beginners do with this output?

Use it to understand exposure and drawdown before using real money. This page is educational only and is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

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