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Prediction Markets

A staged path from the basic idea to pricing, settlement, fees and risk.

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What Are Prediction Markets? Definition, examples and boundaries How Prediction Markets Work Contracts, prices and settlement Probability Pricing Read prices as changing estimates Market Resolution Rules, sources and edge cases Fees, Liquidity & Risk Costs, spread and position risk Prediction Market Analysis Evidence-led research methods
Follow the event

Event Trading

Connect real-world catalysts to market questions, evidence and probability moves.

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What Is Event Trading? A concise definition and examples Event Trading Strategies Structured research patterns Reading Probability Movements Interpret repricing without overclaiming Breaking Events and Markets Live-event examples and limitations Event Market Reaction Database Verified data, charts and downloads Risk Management Position sizing and no-entry rules
Neutral comparison first

Platforms

Start with source-backed comparison, then move to availability, reviews and platform-specific rules.

Platforms home Compare Platforms →
Polymarket Review Funding, resolution and risks Kalshi Review Fees, access and market rules PredictIt Guide Political markets, fees and limits Availability Tracker Official access notes and caveats Platform Finder Match platforms to visitor intent Prediction Market Scanner Search current market data
Practical library

Guides

Rules, costs, resolution and liquidity guides grouped by the decision they support.

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How to Read Market Rules Check conditions before entering Prediction Market Fees Compare cost paths and caveats Kalshi Fees Explained Formula and worked examples PredictIt Fees and Limits Withdrawal friction and constraints Polymarket Resolution Disputes Proposals, challenges and UMA Liquidity and Spread Depth, slippage and entry checks
Calculate and verify

Tools & Data

Put mechanics into practice, compare access, scan markets and download research data.

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YES/NO Contract Calculator Cost, payout, loss and fees Beginner Risk Simulator Model sequence and drawdown risk Platform Availability Tracker Access notes from official sources Prediction Market Scanner Grouped current market discovery Reaction Database Verified cases and research exports Platform Comparison Database Source-backed platform facts
Verified changes

News & Updates

Dated platform, fee, resolution-source and regulatory changes checked against primary sources.

Updates archive Browse Verified Updates →
Kalshi Weather Data Resolution-source update Polymarket Sports Fees Taker fee and maker rebate update CFTC Incentive Advisory Regulatory filing guidance Platform Database Compare source-backed platform facts Availability Tracker Check access notes and caveats Fact-Checking Policy How changing claims are verified

Prediction Market News & Platform Updates

Verified prediction-market platform, fee, resolution-source, availability, and regulatory updates from primary sources.

Source-backed updates archive

Prediction Market News & Platform Updates

Dated notes on platform rules, fees, resolution sources, availability, and regulation—checked against first-party or regulator sources and separated from general market commentary.

  • Primary sources only
  • Reviewed by Machiawelli
  • Archive checked September 4, 2026

Showing 3 of 3 updates.

U.S. regulationRegulation

CFTC Issues Prediction-Market Incentive Program Advisory

The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight reminded designated contract markets of filing obligations for market-maker, liquidity, trading, and incentive programs.

Verified changeThe advisory clarified the content and procedural expectations for self-certifications submitted under CFTC Regulations 40.5 and 40.6 when a program is designed to encourage trading or liquidity.
Read the evidence note
PolymarketFees & rebates

Polymarket Changes Sports Taker Fees and Maker Rebates

Polymarket’s changelog says its sports taker-fee coefficient increased from 0.03 to 0.05 and its sports maker rebate fell from 25% to 15% of collected taker fees.

Verified changeAt midnight UTC on July 10, the sports taker-fee coefficient changed from 0.03 to 0.05 and the maker rebate changed from 25% to 15%.
Read the evidence note

No pilot updates match these filters.

How an update earns a place here

1. Primary evidence

We use an official platform, documentation, filing, or regulator source—not a rewritten press summary.

2. Stated boundary

Each note says what changed, what did not, and which detail still requires a market-specific check.

3. Useful destination

The update points to the affected database field, review, or guide rather than ending as isolated news.

Open the Platform DatabaseRead the Fact-Checking PolicyRead the Editorial Policy
Risk and freshness note: Fees, eligibility, incentives, rules, and resolution sources can change. These notes document the cited source on the displayed date; always open the current market rules and platform terms before acting. This archive is educational and not financial or legal advice.

Risk notice

Prediction markets involve risk

Prediction markets and event contracts involve financial risk. You can lose money, including the full amount committed to a contract.

Event Trading Hub is for education and research only. This is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. You are responsible for your own decisions and for checking platform rules, fees, availability, and local regulations before trading.

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