Prediction Markets Beginner Guide
The broadest entry point for new readers.
Learn why contracts can represent real-world outcomes.
Move from curious reader to confident market observer.
The Guides hub is the structured classroom for EventTradingHub: beginner concepts, mechanics, probability pricing, resolution rules, platform context, and the frameworks traders use to interpret event prices.
Suggested order
The fastest clean route through the topic
Use this order if you want the concepts to build naturally instead of reading random pages.
Understand price, probability, liquidity, fees, and resolution.
Compare the tradeoffs between global liquidity, regulated access, and platform-specific rules.
Read market reactions without treating every move as truth.
Library
Start with the core guides
Concept
What Are Prediction Markets?
A simple explanation of event contracts and crowd forecasts.
Pricing
Probability Pricing Explained
How traders interpret price levels, spreads, fees, and implied probabilities.
Liquidity
Liquidity and Spread in Prediction Markets
How bid/ask spread, depth, and execution friction change a quoted price.
Fees
Prediction Market Fees Compared
Compare trading fees, profit fees, withdrawal costs, and fee examples before choosing a platform.
Kalshi
Kalshi Fees Explained with Examples
Understand the current event-contract fee formula, official worked examples, maker-fee exceptions, and funding-cost checks.
PredictIt
PredictIt Fees and Limits Explained
Check profit fees, withdrawal costs, account limits, holding periods, and beginner safeguards before using PredictIt.
Risk
Prediction Market Risk Management
Set bankroll limits, position sizes, maximum loss, and risk checks before entering a market.
Practical
How to Read Market Rules Before Trading
Check the exact condition, resolution source, deadline, edge cases, and ambiguity before entering a market.
Polymarket
Polymarket Disputes and UMA Resolution
Understand proposals, challenge bonds, UMA voting, settlement timing, and resolution risk.
Resolution
Market Resolution Explained
Why market wording, sources, and settlement criteria matter so much.
Analysis
Prediction Market Analysis
A practical framework for reading probability movement and checking sources.
Choose your level
Pick the right next step
Start with the beginner guide and the what-are-prediction-markets explainer.
Read the Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt guides, then compare regulation, liquidity, rules, and event coverage.
Focus on pricing, resolution, and analysis before treating a market move as a signal. If a news catalyst is your starting point, use the Event Trading hub.
FAQ
Guides FAQ
What should I read first?
Start with the beginner guide if you are new. If you already understand contracts and odds, go straight to How Prediction Markets Work, then Probability Pricing Explained.
Are these guides for traders only?
No. They are also useful for analysts, journalists, researchers, and readers who want to understand how markets process uncertainty.
Why are pricing and resolution separate guides?
Pricing explains what the market thinks before the outcome is known. Resolution explains how the market decides the final result after the event.