Explore how prediction markets reacted to real-world events. This growing public research database documents verified contracts, outcomes, source trails, and progressively added historical probability reactions across Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt.
Beta research database — historical reaction data is being added and verified.
10verified market records
1platforms represented
10verified outcomes
10full reaction datasets
Download the research dataset
Version 2.0-beta-2026-07-19. Probabilities use the documented 0–1 scale; source URLs and verification fields are retained.
Use under CC BY 4.0 for Event Trading Hub’s original compilation; third-party source data remains subject to source terms. Attribution and source URLs must be retained.
Cross-platform comparisons
No equivalent multi-platform contract group is published yet. Shared event IDs are used only after matching the real-world event and documenting resolution-rule differences.
What this database measures
A market reaction is a documented probability change around a verified real-world catalyst. Every published card includes the last price before the event, the immediate move, the peak inside a stated window, the closing price, the resolved outcome, and the final payout. Incomplete research rows are not published as reaction cards.
Last full review: 2026-07-19. Probabilities use a 0–100% display scale; the internal dataset stores them from 0 to 1.
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Essential controls stay visible; open More filters only when needed.
Before100%2026-02-28T09:30:39+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate100%2026-02-28T09:35:40+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak100%2026-02-28T09:35:40+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude+0.0 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak1 minuteFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
+0.0 pp in 1 min
The selected contract moved from 100.0% before the documented catalyst to 100.0% at the largest verified move in the window (+0.0 percentage points), reaching that point after 1 minute.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before99.1%2026-05-03T19:55:06+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate98.7%2026-05-03T20:00:07+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak97%2026-05-03T20:45:08+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude-2.1 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak45 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
-2.1 pp in 45 min
The selected contract moved from 99.1% before the documented catalyst to 97.0% at the largest verified move in the window (-2.1 percentage points), reaching that point after 45 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before50%2026-05-05T20:55:04+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate50%2026-05-05T21:00:03+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak0.1%2026-05-06T21:00:54+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude-50.0 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak1441 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
-50.0 pp in 1441 min
The selected contract moved from 50.0% before the documented catalyst to 0.1% at the largest verified move in the window (-50.0 percentage points), reaching that point after 1441 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before50%2026-05-12T20:55:08+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate48%2026-05-12T21:00:11+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak100%2026-05-13T21:00:14+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude+50.0 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak1440 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
+50.0 pp in 1440 min
The selected contract moved from 50.0% before the documented catalyst to 100.0% at the largest verified move in the window (+50.0 percentage points), reaching that point after 1440 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before89.5%2026-05-16T23:55:06+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate89.5%2026-05-17T00:00:28+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak100%2026-05-17T02:35:09+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude+10.4 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak155 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
+10.4 pp in 155 min
The selected contract moved from 89.5% before the documented catalyst to 100.0% at the largest verified move in the window (+10.4 percentage points), reaching that point after 155 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before2.6%2026-05-30T23:55:03+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate2.6%2026-05-31T00:00:10+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak5.6%2026-05-31T12:30:04+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude+3.0 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak750 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
+3.0 pp in 750 min
The selected contract moved from 2.6% before the documented catalyst to 5.6% at the largest verified move in the window (+3.0 percentage points), reaching that point after 750 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before0.1%2026-06-15T03:55:04+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate0.1%2026-06-15T04:00:07+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak0.1%2026-06-15T04:00:07+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude+0.0 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak0 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
+0.0 pp in 0 min
The selected contract moved from 0.1% before the documented catalyst to 0.1% at the largest verified move in the window (+0.0 percentage points), reaching that point after 0 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before50.5%2026-07-01T19:55:04+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate51.5%2026-07-01T20:00:04+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak0.1%2026-07-01T22:00:04+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude-50.5 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak120 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
-50.5 pp in 120 min
The selected contract moved from 50.5% before the scheduled match start to 0.1% at the largest verified move in the window (-50.5 percentage points), reaching that point after 120 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before52.5%2026-07-04T16:55:03+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate53.5%2026-07-04T17:00:06+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak100%2026-07-04T19:05:03+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude+47.5 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak125 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
+47.5 pp in 125 min
The selected contract moved from 52.5% before the scheduled match start to 100.0% at the largest verified move in the window (+47.5 percentage points), reaching that point after 125 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Before30.1%2026-07-14T18:55:04+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Immediate30.6%2026-07-14T19:00:07+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Peak99.9%2026-07-14T21:00:06+00:00 · UTC · api snapshot
Reaction magnitude+69.8 percentage pointsBefore to peak
Time to peak120 minutesFrom verified event time
Verified probability snapshotsDiscrete sourced observations — not a continuous price series
+69.8 pp in 120 min
The selected contract moved from 30.1% before the scheduled match start to 99.9% at the largest verified move in the window (+69.8 percentage points), reaching that point after 120 minutes.Read as four verified checkpoints; spacing shows sequence, not elapsed-time scale.
Official Polymarket market metadata, CLOB price history, and FIFA result verified.
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Methodology and terminology
Values are published only when a source and capture time support them. “Before” is the last available price before the verified event timestamp; “Immediate” is the first valid snapshot in the documented post-event window; “Peak” is the largest move inside the stated measurement window. Closing price, resolved outcome, and payout are separate fields.
Before
The final verified market price before the catalyst timestamp.
Immediate reaction
The first verified post-event snapshot, normally within one to five minutes when data resolution permits.
Peak
The highest or lowest verified probability inside the record’s stated measurement window.
Parent event volume
Volume for a broader event that may contain several contracts; it is not presented as single-contract volume.
Research transparency
Published by Event Trading Hub. Records are checked manually against official platform pages, official APIs where available, platform resolution evidence, and primary result sources. Missing fields remain unavailable. Corrections can be reported through the contact page.
This database is educational research, not financial or trading advice. Similar-looking markets may use different rules, deadlines, sources, and settlement procedures.
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